Viet Nam’s Economy to Rise and Fall

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), has just published a report that forecasts strong economic growth in Vietnam that may be followed by a fall.

The report,  Foresight 2020: Economic, Industry and Corporate Trends, is sponsored by the globally trusted, NASDAQ-listed Cisco Systems consulting company, and aims to assess the economic prospects of countries up to the year 2020.

Viet Nam's economy will develop strongly from 2006-2010

More than 1,650 senior executives, analysts and policymakers from across the globe took part in a survey and a series of in-depth interviews conducted for the report. The report also showcases the Economist Intelligence Unit's new long-term growth forecasts.

According to “Foresight 2020”, until 2020, Viet Nam’s economy will develop most strongly in the period 2006-2010. Namely, Viet Nam’s economic growth rate will  reach 7% annually from 2006-2010, ranking second, after China and above India (6.6%), Indonesia (5.6%), Malaysia (5.3%), and Thailand (4.5%).

Also, the EIU’s research group forecast Viet Nam’s GDP will reach US$85.3 billion (US$970 per capita) based on the foreign exchange rate in 2010.

If based on the purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate, 2010 GDP would be US$415billion (US$4,550 per capita).

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Viet Nam is expected to be US$3.4 billion by 2010, accounting for 32.5% of the country’s GDP, with US$28.1 billion in foreign debts.

The report also predicted that Viet Nam’s economic growth will fall to an average rate of 4.6% per year due to the previous trend's overwhelming saturation after 2011. 
 
In this period, Vietnam's growth is predicted to be lower than that of the Philippines, Thailand (4.7%), Malaysia (4.8%), and Indonesia (5%).

By Tran Quynh Lam – Translated by Yen Chuong

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