Vietnam’s economy looks bright in 2014: Economist

In 2013,  Vietnam’s economy faced many challenges, due to last six years of instability; however,  recent sequence of events shows that the economy seems to be recovering with a stable index of growth in inflation, export and import.

In general, Vietnam’s economy this year is not different to predictions made in early 2013, said economist Tran Du Lich, member of the National Assembly Economic Committee.

Based on improvements in inflation and CPI, Dr. Tran Du Lich forecasts in 2014 the economy will be quite stable.

Emphasizing the important solutions for economic development in 2014-2015, Dr Tran Du Lich added that for short term strategy, the government should focus on cutting the level of bad debts and accordingly help enterprises absorb capital and resolve payment  arrears to construction companies. The massive piled debts have crippled many construction companies.

There also needs to be a change in Government Resolution 02 over the VND30 trillion (US$1.4 billion) lending package to shore up the real estate sector.

For a long term strategy, firstly, the government needs an economy recovery program until 2015. The program must strive for CPI yearly growth of 7 percent for the period 2013-2015 and below 5 percent in following years.

There should be a combination of better monetary policies, fiscal policies, foreign trade policies and market policies to privatize some public services.

The economy recovery program should be designed for medium term to eliminate careless measures adopted before and switch from passive inflation constraints to active. Inflation targeting must create surplus for monetary and fiscal policies but not push up inflation.

Secondly, the above inflation targeting, monetary and fiscal policies have to mobilize social investment at 30-32 percent GDP for next three years. These should have close coordination to balance social investment.

Thirdly, for 2013 and 2014, the government should increase public spending such as issuing government bonds exceeding the rate approved by the National Assembly for construction debts and unfinished construction to stimulate the whole country’s spending.

Fourthly, these above measures should be inserted with breakthrough for restructuring of state enterprises.

By Phan Thao – Translated by Uyen Phuong

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