These are the findings of the latest survey on interest rates done by HCM City Securities Company (HSC).
Currently, interest rates for đồng deposits are 4.5 to 5.4 per cent for one- to six-month terms; 5.4 to 6.5 per cent for six- to below-12-month terms; and 6.4 to 7.2 per cent a year for more than 12 months.
The đồng lending rates average 6 to 7 per cent per year for short-term loans, and 9 to 10 per cent a year for medium- and long-term loans in priority fields. The average rate for ordinary loans is 6.8 to 9 per cent a year for short term, and 9.3 to 11 per cent a year for medium- and long-term loans.
The yields of the Government’s five-year, seven-year, 20-year and 30-year bonds are 5.03, 5.35, 7 and 7.55 per cent a year, respectively.
The consumer price index in May slid 0.53 per cent against the previous month, according to the General Statistics Office, suggesting that inflation would not rise in the short term. Together with the stable foreign exchange rate, it has helped keep interest rates stable in the first part of 2017, HSC said.
HSC expects the devaluation of the đồng against the dollar to be less than 2 per cent this year. The dollar has strengthened against the đồng by 1 per cent in the first five months.
Interest rates, especially of deposits, may inch down over the next few months, HSC said, adding that credit growth might exceed the 16 per cent target, helping the GDP meet the 6.7 per cent growth target set for 2017.
Nguyễn Hoàng Minh. deputy director of the State Bank of Việt Nam’s HCM City branch, has also forecast that interest rates for the rest of the year may decline by 0.5-1 percentage points against December 2016, if the đồng remains stable.
Last week, market research company Market Intello also predicted that the average interest rate this year would drop by 0.5 percentage points compared to 2016. It expects the exchange rate to increase by 1-1.5 per cent as the US Federal Reserve’s plans to raise rates and trade deficit may raise the demand for US dollars much more than in 2016. However, it does not expect the đồng to be depressed further, as inflation is well under control at below 4 per cent and the central bank has abundant foreign reserves.