Speculative stocks muddy market trends

Investors are shifting off blue chips and flirting with speculative stocks, making it more difficult to predict market trends.

Specialists monitor a bidding session on the Hanoi Stock Exchange. (Photo: VNA)

Specialists monitor a bidding session on the Hanoi Stock Exchange. (Photo: VNA)

Many speculative stocks posted impressive growth last week and their gains even far exceeded the increases of the two main stock indices.

The benchmark VN-Index on the HCM Stock Exchange inched up just 0.16 percent last week, closing September 22 at 807.13 points. On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index rose by a stronger 1.94 percent, ending the week at 106.52 points.

Meanwhile, KLF Joint Venture Global Investment (KLF), a penny stock on the Hanoi bourse, cheered a seven-session rising streak, with its shares hitting the daily maximum rise for the last six sessions.

KLF has gained over 55 percent in the past seven sessions with a total of 127 million shares traded.

In the HCM City’s market, HUD1 Investment & Construction (HU1) was the best performer last week with a growth of 30.8 percent. Investors are betting on the firm’s third-quarter earnings, which its chairman has said would see the best business results in the company’s history.

Property developer An Duong Thao Dien JSC (HAR) came second with a weekly gain of 17.5 percent.

Increasing cash flows in speculative stocks also stimulated trading and helped push up market liquidity.

An average of 223.5 million shares worth 4 trillion VND (176.2 million USD) were traded per session in the two markets, up 19.3 percent compared to the previous session.

Meanwhile, blue chips in the VN30 (which tracks the top 30 largest shares by market value and liquidity on the HCM Stock Exchange) widened divergence.

Vietinbank (CTG), BIDV (BID), IT group FPT (FPT) and steelmaker Hoa Phat Group (HPG) were gainers with growth of between 2-4 percent, but private equity Masan Group (MSN) declined 7.3 percent and dairy giant Vinamilk dropped by less than 1 percent.

Weakening of large-cap stocks slowed down the market uptrend and made the market more volatile.

“This is a very difficult time for short-term opportunities,” said Nguyen Huu Binh, head of analysis at Vietnam Investment Securities Co. Binh said many major stocks with sound financial indicators have risen at least 20 percent in the past two months, whereas investment in speculative stocks is often associated with high risks.

He cited the example of HAI Agrochem JSC (HAI), which climbed from just 4,000 VND a share at the end of June to over 21,000 VND in early August but declined sharply since then to around 10,000 VND last week.

“I personally think that investors should ignore short-term factors and seek stocks with positive elements but have yet to increase much for medium investment purpose,” Binh was quoted as saying on tinhnhanhchungkhoan.vn.

Last week, oil and gas stocks moved in line with global oil prices. They declined in the first three sessions and rebounded in the two week end sessions. Ending September 22, Petrolimex (PLX) lost 5.4 percent while PV Gas (GAS) closed unchanged.

According to market observers, oil and gas stocks are likely to increase this week as oil prices reached over 50 USD a barrel in world markets.

New York’s light sweet crude (WTI) delivery in November rose 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, to 50.66 USD in New York. Meanwhile, in the London market, Brent crude oil delivery also advanced 0.8 percent to 56.86 USD a barrel.

For the whole week, WTI oil added 1.5 percent, marking the third weekly gain. Brent Oil also gained 2.2 percent for its fourth straight week of gains.

In addition, forecasts also point to gold trading as safe and profitable in the context of rising global political instability.

Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC (PNJ) has climbed 51.5 percent since early this year, from 75,500 VND a share on January 3 to 114,400 VND on September 22.

Vietnamplus

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