According to the draft, the GDP of the domestic trade sector will be more than 419 trillion VND by 2020, 700 trillion VND by 2025, and 2.3 quadrillion VND by 2035, contributing roughly 15.5-16 percent to Vietnam’s GDP by 2030.
The annual growth rate (excluding the price factor) of the country’s total revenue from retail sales of goods and services for the period from now to 2020 will average at 13 percent per year, and rise to 14 percent in 2021-25. The value will reach some 5.8 quadrillion VND by 2020, 11 quadrillion VND by 2025 and 44 quadrillion VND by 2035.
Domestic economic sector will account for some 80 percent of the country’s total retail sales revenue by 2020, while the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector will make up about 20 percent before rising to 70 percent by 2025.
The proportion of modern trade models will be roughly 30 percent, or nearly 1.7 quadrillion VND, by 2020. It will rise to 35 percent or 3.8 quadrillion VND by 2025 and 50 percent or 22 quadrillion VND by 2035.
Modern trade models such as commodity exchanges, auction centres and franchises will be also developed, and e-commerce will be boosted to have more than 60 percent of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) participating in e-commerce by 2020 and 80-90 percent by 2035.
For the period after 2025, the GDP of the domestic trade sector will reach some 2.3 quadrillion VND by 2035, contributing some 15.5-16 percent to Vietnam’s GDP by 2030.
The trade system in the country’s urban areas will be streamlined to meet the standards of ASEAN 4 by 2035.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the strategy was drafted based on data during the period from 2011 to 2015 when the GDP growth rate of the domestic trade sector was 9.05 percent per year. Besides, the ministry also based its strategy on the evaluation and forecast of commercial trends in the domestic and global markets.
Vietnam last year was ranked by A.T. Kearney among the world’s top 30 retail markets with the best opportunities. The country’s retail market last year rose 10.2 percent over the previous year to 3.5 quadrillion VND, according to the General Statistics Office.
The market has been an attractive destination for foreign investors thanks to its relatively young population, a rapidly expanding middle class and high living standards.
Almost 60 percent of Vietnam’s population of roughly 93 million people is under the age of 35, and is becoming better educated and richer. The country’s average income last year jumped to 2,200 USD from a meager 433 USD in 2000, according to official data.
The World Bank forecast that Vietnam’s 200 billion USD economy is likely to grow to a trillion dollars by 2035, with more than half of its population, compared to only 11 percent today, expected to join the ranks of the global middle class with the consumption of 15USD a day or more.