Mr Nguyen Huu Hai, head of the National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Centre (HMFC), has had a quick conversation with the Sai Gon Giai Phong's reporter about the weather in 2006.
|Sudden rains inundate Ho Chi Minh City streets in March|
In general, the weather pattern in the monsoon season of 2006 shows the amount of rainfall, storms and flooding higher than the previous years’ average (PYA). Fierce storms and floods can occur in some areas. The North and the Central might be subjected to heat waves in the early months of the rainy season.
Annually, it usually rains on the large area toward the end of March and early April, but not this year. Are we still under the influence of the El-Nino, causing low rainfall and drought?
The rainfall in 2006 may be less than that of 2005, but would be much more than PYA. According to our latest data, the height of the rain season will occur in the North between May and mid - August, 2006; in the Central between the end of August and early of September, and in the South by July and August.
Early in the rainy season, rainfall in the North will be equal to PYA, a little more than PYA in the mid-season, and lower in the end of the season. In the Central, rainfall will be more than PYA in the early and the end, while it will be lower in the middle of the rainy season.
In the North and Highland regions, rainfall can be higher or equal to PYA.
But even in the rainy season, the Southern Central regions and the Central can face a shortage of water.
In the first period of the rainy season in this year, the rainfall is a little less than PYA.
How many storms are expected to make landfall?
Probably there will be between 7 to 8 storms arriving from in the East Sea, 5 or 6 of which will make landfall (wind-force can get up to level 6 or over).
According to the information of Viet Nam’s HMFC, compared with Japan’s, the Philippine’s and Taiwan’s, there will be 1 or 2 storms with level 11 wind-force among those coming to Viet Nam in 2006.
What are flood levels on the rivers?
The highest of flood-mark in the North in 2006 can be higher than in 2005. Flood on the tributaries of the Hong River (Red River) can be at or over warning level 3.
On Thai Binh River (Pacific River), it can be at or over warning level 3. On the large rivers in northern central area (from Thanh Hoa Province to Ha Tinh Province) high-water marks can reach PYA and at warning level 3.
The marks on big rivers in central area of the Central, south of the Central, and Highlands should be equal to PYA and higher than warning level 3.
In southern areas, the highest flood-mark in Mekong River may be higher than in 2005, higher than PYA and higher than warning level 3.
The flood crest of large northern rivers may appear in the end of July or August, the flood crest of large central rivers -in August or September, southern large rivers- in November and December.
Will we be under the influence of the El-Nino with heat waves in this year?
Maybe, the weather pattern will lean a little toward to El-Nino, but this year it is anticipated that we are in the between of El-Nino and La-Nina. Temperature of all seasons can be in PYA or higher. From May to June, the temperature can move higher than the PYA (particularly lower than PYA in the Central and southern part of the Central). In July and August, the temperature can be at PYA, and higher than PYA in September and October.
The temperature in the North and the Central can get up to 39 – 40 degrees Celsius in the heat wave days. However, the hot spell will not last long. Precautions need to be taken in case of thunder storms with strong whirlwinds in the early stage of the rainy season.